Currently, the retail inflation is well below the RBI's comfort level. The government has asked the central bank to keep inflation in the range of 4 per cent.
Enthused by higher than expected GDP numbers in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said India's economic growth may exceed the initial estimate of 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal and the country can look for another year of solid economic performance.
The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing industry climbed from 49.6 in October to 51.3 in November on the back of a rebound in new orders and output.
Inflation in the 'fuel and power' basket in December slumped to 8.38 per cent, nearly half of 16.28 per cent.
Food prices rose 8.64 per cent year-on-year last month, slower than an annual rise of 9.90 per cent in March.
Potato, a daily consumable vegetable, witnessed maximum inflationary pressure at 60.58 per cent
Last week, the Consumer Price Index-based inflation for the month had contracted to 4.4 per cent.
The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector has underperformed the Nifty over the past year as its 20 per cent return is trumped by 29 per cent of the benchmark index. The FMCG index saw a 2.2 per cent drop in the last session, while the Nifty lost 1 per cent. FMCG is seen as a defensive segment. The demand for staples like personal care products, groceries and snacks tend to be stable. FMCG companies are consistent dividend-payers.
On overall basis, the inflation in the food segment increased to 4.42 per cent in November as compared to 1.9 per cent in the preceding month.
Selling in index heavyweights, including Infosys, TCS, ICICI Bank and Reliance Industries, dragged the benchmark indices into the negative for the second straight session, analysts said. Among the Sensex shares, Asian Paints fell the most by 3.9 per cent as analysts expressed concerns over rising competition in the domestic paints market following the entry of Aditya Birla group company Grasim Industries into the paints segment. IT shares Infosys, TCS, HCL Tech, Wipro and Tech Mahindra continued to slide amid inflation concerns in the US market.
The Reserve Bank will hold a special meeting of its rate-setting committee on November 3 to prepare a report for the government on why it failed to keep retail inflation below the target of 6 per cent for three consecutive quarters since January. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will prepare the report on reasons for failure to meet the inflation target as well as the remedial measures the central bank is taking to bring down prices in the country. "Under the provisions of Section 45ZN of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act 1934... an additional meeting of the MPC is being scheduled on November 3, 2022," RBI said in a statement on Thursday.
Despite multiple headwinds at the start of 2023, the Indian markets delivered a strong performance, posting 19-20 per cent growth for the year. Even as new records were set, investor sentiment remains strong going into 2024, given the lower inflation, expectations of steady to lower interest rates, higher economic growth, and strong inflows. However, the overriding concern for most brokerages is valuations.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is now projected to be at 5.3 per cent for 2021-22 with risks evenly balanced. In its August policy, the central bank had estimated inflation to be at 5.7 per cent due to supply side constraints, high crude oil and raw materials cost.
India's manufacturing sector growth climbed to a 16-year high in March on the back of the strongest increase in output and new orders since October 2020, amid reports of buoyant demand conditions, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surged to a 16-year high of 59.1 in March, from 56.9 in February, reflecting stronger growth of new orders, output and input stocks as well as renewed job creation. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Inflation in food articles inched up to 0.69 per cent in September.
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This growth seen by the consumer goods was led mainly by the durables market, which rose 17.6%, the highest in 11 months
Prices of the kitchen staple in Azadpur mandi, Asia's largest wholesale market, were ruling at Rs 60 per kg today as supplies were below normal.
Industrial production re-entered the negative territory by contracting 1.6 per cent in January, mainly on account of the decline in output of capital goods, manufacturing and mining sectors. The output of the manufacturing sector -- which constitutes 77.6 per cent of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) -- shrank by 2 per cent in January, as against a growth of 1.8 per cent during the same month last fiscal, as per data released by the government on Friday. The worst performance was witnessed by the capital goods sector, which recorded a contraction of 9.6 per cent during the month under review, compared to a 4.4 per cent decline a year ago.
Retail inflation inched up to 4.48 per cent in October due to an uptick in food prices, government data showed on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was at 4.35 per cent in September and 7.61 per cent in October 2020.
With retail inflation witnessing significant uptick in May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to maintain status quo in its August monetary policy review, according to a report. According to the SBI's research report- Ecowrap, inflation may remain elevated in the coming months due to several global and domestic factors. "We expect a status-quo in August. We believe RBI would still try to find a marriage of convenience of regulatory and developmental measures and monetary policy in August policy," the research report said on Wednesday.
Retail inflation in pulses and products category rose to a staggering 42.20 per cent in October.
The whole price index, used to measure rise in prices of a range of products in a consumer basket, stood at 9.06 per cent in May.
Soft crude prices will cut fuel subsidy bill and help contain fiscal slippage this year.
'Yet the market didn't do all that badly because it was cushioned by domestic inflows.'
There are glaring anomalies with Indian data and that could lead to wrong policy prescriptions.
Sources said Rajan will make the customary call on the Finance Minister on Monday, a day before he presents the policy.
The stock of consumer goods major Emami has corrected nearly 3.5 per cent since its 52-week high of Rs 546.25. On August 29, the stock closed at Rs 521.90 on the BSE. After underperforming the Nifty FMCG index for a long time, the stock is now doing a catch up and surged over 13 per cent in the past one month.
It is unlikely that the RBI will drop rates until the inflation rate drops below five per cent.
Inflation rate during August, the data for which is yet to be released, was likely to remain at about 7 per cent, said SBI Ecowrap.
'The actual price of petrol is Rs 35 and it jumps to Rs 88 because of government taxes.'
Lead indicators suggest that domestic current account deficit (CAD) is likely to reduce in 2023, while macro-economic stability has received a boost from inflation being brought back to the official tolerance band, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) January 2023 Bulletin. "With the merchandise trade deficit reaching an all-time high of $83.5 billion in a quarter, and a rise in net outgo from the income account, the current account deficit increased to 4.4 per cent of GDP in Q2FY23," the State of the Economy article in the bulletin said. "It is noteworthy, however, that the CAD for Q1 was revised down from 2.8 per cent to 2.2 per cent on account of downward adjustment in Customs data.
Vegetables and fruits have weights of 1.74 per cent and 2.11 per cent, respectively, in the wholesale price index.
The employment situation remains dire. Whatever can be done to promote greater low-skill employment should be pursued aggressively, advises former chief economic adviser Shankar Acharya.
While FMCG companies lose Rs 98,928 crore in m-cap, consumer durables stocks are down Rs 20,673 crore since November 8.
The wholesale price-based inflation rose for the second consecutive month in February to 4.17 per cent, as food, fuel and power prices spiked. The WPI inflation was 2.03 per cent in January and 2.26 per cent in February last year. After witnessing months of softening of prices, the food articles in February saw 1.36 per cent inflation. In January it was (-) 2.80 per cent.
The government hopes of registering GDP growth rate ranging between 6.1-6.7 per cent in 2013-14.
The inflation in the food basket spiked to 7.89 per cent in October 2019 as against 5.11 per cent the preceding month.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said inflation management cannot be "singularly" left to the monetary policy as a majority of activities are outside its purview in the current context. Speaking at a seminar organised by economic think-tank Icrier, the finance minister said that both the fiscal policy and the monetary policy have to work together to contain inflation. Consumer price index (CPI) based inflation or retail inflation is ruling above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent since January.
The current situation offers an opportunity for farmers to reinvest in agriculture.
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